Comments on: Don’t Connect the Dots, Watch the Noise http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/ Organizational Knowledge Design. Wed, 01 Sep 2010 19:19:41 +0000 hourly 1 By: Library clips :: Sharing and Change in the Corporate Plot :: March :: 2010 http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-10702 Library clips :: Sharing and Change in the Corporate Plot :: March :: 2010 Wed, 31 Mar 2010 22:05:45 +0000 http://jbordeaux.com/?p=418#comment-10702 [...] John Bordeaux encapsulates this nicely, like Snowden he talks about anticipatory awareness, rather than prediction. The title of his post says it all, "Don’t connect the dots, watch the noise" [...] [...] John Bordeaux encapsulates this nicely, like Snowden he talks about anticipatory awareness, rather than prediction. The title of his post says it all, "Don’t connect the dots, watch the noise" [...]

]]> By: Chris Rodgers http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-8256 Chris Rodgers Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:08:12 +0000 http://jbordeaux.com/?p=418#comment-8256 Hi Rotkapchen, I agree with your main point. I'm not too impressed, though, with the following highlighted quotation from the Snowden/Kutz paper you cite in your follow-up comment: "We are capable of shifting a system from complexity to order and maintaining it there in such a way that it becomes predictable." Not if we're talking about complex human processes we can't! It looks as if there might be more here Bas (in the Snowden/Kutz paper) to further your 'Are organizations systems?' debate. This quote highlights one of the dangers of viewing organizations as systems - whether "complex adaptive" ones or otherwise. Cheers, Chris Hi Rotkapchen,

I agree with your main point. I’m not too impressed, though, with the following highlighted quotation from the Snowden/Kutz paper you cite in your follow-up comment: “We are capable of shifting a system from complexity to order and maintaining it there in such a way that it becomes predictable.”

Not if we’re talking about complex human processes we can’t!

It looks as if there might be more here Bas (in the Snowden/Kutz paper) to further your ‘Are organizations systems?’ debate. This quote highlights one of the dangers of viewing organizations as systems – whether “complex adaptive” ones or otherwise.

Cheers, Chris

]]> By: Bas Reus http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-8250 Bas Reus Tue, 05 Jan 2010 08:43:35 +0000 http://jbordeaux.com/?p=418#comment-8250 Predicting the future is something from fiction books. Recognizing patterns is something we can. However, in a more and more non-linear world, we find it harder and more complex. Analyzing some data is doable. Analyzing more data is more difficult. Analyzing even m0re data becomes almost impossible, possibilities become non-linear. It reminds me of the book 'The Tipping Point' of Malcolm Gladwell. Identify the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen. Maybe you then know where to focus on. Predicting the future is something from fiction books. Recognizing patterns is something we can. However, in a more and more non-linear world, we find it harder and more complex. Analyzing some data is doable. Analyzing more data is more difficult. Analyzing even m0re data becomes almost impossible, possibilities become non-linear.

It reminds me of the book ‘The Tipping Point’ of Malcolm Gladwell. Identify the connectors, the mavens and the salesmen. Maybe you then know where to focus on.

]]> By: Rotkapchen http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-8242 Rotkapchen Tue, 05 Jan 2010 05:34:37 +0000 http://jbordeaux.com/?p=418#comment-8242 And of course, Dave Snowden has been on top of Sensemaking as well: http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf And of course, Dave Snowden has been on top of Sensemaking as well: http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf

]]> By: Rotkapchen http://jbordeaux.com/dont-connect-the-dots-watch-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-8239 Rotkapchen Tue, 05 Jan 2010 04:33:19 +0000 http://jbordeaux.com/?p=418#comment-8239 "we do not know which scenario, which threat, which dot deserves our attention before the fact. And if we keep assuming there is a golden thread that, if pulled, will unravel the future – we never will" Or as Clay Shirky says, what we have is filter failure (http://lifehacker.com/5052851/information-overload-is-filter-failure-says-shirky). I'd take it a step further, it's not just filtering, it's synthesizing - sensemaking. But then again, the same thing was said by a CIA director 8 years after the fact : ) http://tractiontug.blip.tv/file/2807129/ “we do not know which scenario, which threat, which dot deserves our attention before the fact. And if we keep assuming there is a golden thread that, if pulled, will unravel the future – we never will”

Or as Clay Shirky says, what we have is filter failure (http://lifehacker.com/5052851/information-overload-is-filter-failure-says-shirky). I’d take it a step further, it’s not just filtering, it’s synthesizing – sensemaking. But then again, the same thing was said by a CIA director 8 years after the fact : ) http://tractiontug.blip.tv/file/2807129/

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